Sunderlandvs
Arsenal
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.28 | 15.2% | 26.5% | 11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.9% | 26.6% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 59.9% | 46.9% | -12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SunderlandWDWLW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ArsenalWWWWW
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
SunderlandArsenal
33.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence88.9
44.4Form100.0
51.1Power87.0
1.11xG1.51