Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sudtirol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sudtirol 1-1 Sampdoria
Original prediction
Sudtirol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.7% | 56.8% | 24.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 31.1% | 23.5% | -7.6 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 36.2% | 19.7% | -16.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Sudtirol
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Sudtirol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SudtirolLDLWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SampdoriaLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SudtirolSampdoria
42.9Attack33.3
71.4Defence28.6
57.1Form19.0
57.9Power30.6
1.96xG0.64