Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sudtirol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sudtirol 0-0 Modena, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sudtirol 1-1 Modena
Original prediction
Sudtirol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 31.3% | 39.8% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 31.5% | 29.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 37.2% | 30.7% | -6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Projected Score
Sudtirol 0–0 Modena
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Sudtirol
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Sudtirol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SudtirolWDWDW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ModenaLWWLD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SudtirolModena
40.4Attack36.0
57.9Defence58.8
41.2Form41.2
48.6Power47.6
1.07xG0.83