Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Catanzaro · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sudtirol 2-0 Catanzaro
Original prediction
Catanzaro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.0% | 36.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.9% | 27.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 30.1% | 36.6% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Catanzaro
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Catanzaro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SudtirolDWDWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CatanzaroLLDWW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SudtirolCatanzaro
40.4Attack53.7
57.9Defence52.8
41.2Form52.0
48.6Power54.1
1.20xG1.26