Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sudtirol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sudtirol 0-0 Ascoli
Original prediction
Sudtirol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 37.5% | 41.8% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.9% | 28.9% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.86 | 32.6% | 29.3% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.12 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Sudtirol
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Sudtirol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SudtirolLWLDW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AscoliWLWDW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SudtirolAscoli
60.0Attack46.7
80.0Defence73.3
73.3Form66.7
72.0Power64.6
1.27xG0.90