Stranraervs
East Kilbride
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
East Kilbride · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stranraer 4-3 East Kilbride
Original prediction
East Kilbride
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.43 | 26.2% | 31.8% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.7% | 22.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.76 | 51.0% | 45.7% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
East Kilbride
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
East Kilbride has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 9 · avg 3.20/1.80
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40