Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stranraer · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stranraer 3-4 Celtic II
Original prediction
Stranraer
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.2% | 41.5% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.2% | 25.2% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.16 | 28.6% | 33.3% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Stranraer
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Stranraer has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
StranraerWWDWL
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Celtic IIDDWWW
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
StranraerCeltic II
66.7Attack83.3
66.7Defence50.0
50.0Form66.7
59.3Power68.0
1.90xG1.71