Stoke Cityvs
Sheffield Utd
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stoke City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stoke City 2-1 Sheffield Utd
Original prediction
Stoke City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.2% | 42.9% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.3% | 26.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 31.5% | 30.8% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Stoke City
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Stoke City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60