Stoke Cityvs
Norwich
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norwich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stoke City 1-0 Norwich
Original prediction
Norwich
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.35 | 28.1% | 31.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.6% | 26.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 45.3% | 42.3% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Norwich
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Norwich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Stoke CityLDLLW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NorwichWWLLW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Stoke CityNorwich
33.3Attack55.6
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form33.3
16.7Power40.6
1.38xG1.67