Stoke Cityvs
Middlesbrough
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stoke City 2-3 Middlesbrough
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.68 | 25.5% | 32.6% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 26.0% | 27.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 48.5% | 40.1% | -8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00