Stoke Cityvs
Charlton
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charlton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Stoke City 4-0 Charlton
Original prediction
Charlton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 44.1% | 29.2% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.1% | 26.5% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 26.8% | 44.3% | 17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Charlton
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Charlton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60