Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stevenage · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Stevenage are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Reading are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Stevenage hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 74.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.7% in the League Cup, while Stevenage holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Stevenage
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
12.7%
Stevenage has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20