St. Louis Cityvs
Minnesota United FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/13/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Louis City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FC
Original prediction
St. Louis City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 46.6% | 43.1% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 25.0% | 27.5% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 28.4% | 29.4% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
St. Louis City
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
St. Louis City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 14 · GA 13 · avg 2.80/2.60