St. Louis Cityvs
FC Dallas
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 8/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
St. Louis City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
St. Louis City 3-3 FC Dallas
Original prediction
St. Louis City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 47.9% | 45.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.2% | 22.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 26.9% | 32.0% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
St. Louis City
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
St. Louis City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40