Sportlust '46vs
Excelsior Maassluis
COMPLETEDNetherlands · KNVB Beker · 9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior Maassluis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sportlust '46 0-2 Excelsior Maassluis
Original prediction
Excelsior Maassluis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 29.6% | 36.6% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 26.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 44.5% | 36.8% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior Maassluis
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Excelsior Maassluis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00