Excelsior Maassluisvs
Heerenveen
COMPLETEDNetherlands · KNVB Beker · 10/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heerenveen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior Maassluis 0-2 Heerenveen
Original prediction
Heerenveen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.49 | 9.7% | 34.5% | 24.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.80 | 15.8% | 23.8% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 1.23 | 74.5% | 41.7% | -32.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Heerenveen
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Heerenveen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80