Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Real Salt Lake
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/18/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Salt Lake · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Kansas City 1-3 Real Salt Lake
Original prediction
Real Salt Lake
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 33.5% | 25.1% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.7% | 20.0% | -4.7 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 41.8% | 54.8% | 13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Real Salt Lake
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Real Salt Lake has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60