Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Philadelphia Union
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/20/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Philadelphia Union · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia Union
Original prediction
Philadelphia Union
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.07 | 18.5% | 14.0% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.9% | 15.8% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 60.6% | 70.2% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–39%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Philadelphia Union
Probability
70.2%
Model confidence
70.2%
Philadelphia Union has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40