Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Austin
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/25/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Austin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Austin
Original prediction
Austin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 43.1% | 35.2% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.5% | 27.2% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 32.4% | 37.6% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Austin
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Austin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40