Sporting CPvs
Nacional
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/5/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting CP · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting CP 2-0 Nacional
Original prediction
Sporting CP
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 80.2% | 59.7% | -20.5 pts |
| Draw | 7.28 | 12.9% | 21.1% | 8.1 pts |
| Away | 13.70 | 6.9% | 19.2% | 12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Sporting CP
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
Sporting CP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60