Sporting CPvs
Arouca
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/19/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting CP · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca
Original prediction
Sporting CP
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 80.5% | 58.1% | -22.4 pts |
| Draw | 7.48 | 12.6% | 22.0% | 9.4 pts |
| Away | 13.60 | 6.9% | 19.8% | 12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 6.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Sporting CP
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Sporting CP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00