Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartans · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartans 1-0 Dundee II
Original prediction
Spartans
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 80.0% | 63.7% | -16.3 pts |
| Draw | 7.30 | 12.4% | 18.9% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 12.05 | 7.5% | 17.4% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Spartans
Probability
63.7%
Model confidence
63.7%
Spartans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SpartansDLWLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Dundee IILLLLL
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SpartansDundee II
58.3Attack33.3
50.0Defence0.0
41.7Form0.0
47.4Power16.3
2.73xG1.22