Spartak Plevenvs
Ludogorets II
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ludogorets II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Pleven 1-0 Ludogorets II
Original prediction
Ludogorets II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 38.7% | 27.5% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.6% | 27.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.6% | 45.4% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Ludogorets II
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Ludogorets II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80