Spartak Plevenvs
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 10/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Etar Veliko Tarnovo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Pleven 2-1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Original prediction
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 33.9% | 24.6% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.5% | 21.3% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.6% | 54.0% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80