Spartak Kostromavs
Leningradets
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 10/17/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Kostroma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Spartak Kostroma 1-0 Leningradets, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Kostroma 2-0 Leningradets
Original prediction
Spartak Kostroma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 64.5% | 68.9% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 21.3% | 19.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 6.50 | 14.2% | 11.2% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Projected Score
Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Leningradets
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Kostroma
Probability
68.9%
Model confidence
68.9%
Spartak Kostroma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40