Spartak Kostromavs
FK Neftekhimik
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 9/14/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Kostroma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Spartak Kostroma 1-0 FK Neftekhimik, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Kostroma 1-0 FK Neftekhimik
Original prediction
Spartak Kostroma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 55.1% | 62.0% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.7% | 25.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.78 | 19.2% | 13.0% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Projected Score
Spartak Kostroma 1–0 FK Neftekhimik
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Kostroma
Probability
62.0%
Model confidence
62.0%
Spartak Kostroma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80