Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spaeri · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spaeri 0-0 Gagra
Original prediction
Spaeri
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.5% | 44.5% | 0.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.5% | 27.4% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.1% | 28.1% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Spaeri
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Spaeri has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SpaeriLDLLD
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GagraLLDLD
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SpaeriGagra
43.7Attack29.9
43.7Defence50.6
29.9Form33.3
40.7Power40.4
1.39xG0.93