Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dila · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spaeri 1-4 Dila
Original prediction
Dila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 32.2% | 30.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.5% | 26.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 40.3% | 42.7% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Dila
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Dila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SpaeriLDDLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DilaLDWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SpaeriDila
42.3Attack43.6
50.0Defence62.8
32.1Form47.4
42.8Power53.0
0.98xG1.24