Southamptonvs
Swansea
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southampton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southampton 3-1 Swansea
Original prediction
Southampton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 51.1% | 42.9% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.4% | 26.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 23.5% | 30.4% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Southampton
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20