Southamptonvs
Portsmouth
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southampton 1-0 Portsmouth
Original prediction
Southampton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 59.3% | 52.7% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 22.8% | 24.9% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 5.25 | 17.9% | 22.5% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Southampton
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20