Southamptonvs
Millwall
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Millwall · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southampton 5-1 Millwall
Original prediction
Millwall
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 47.6% | 35.9% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 26.5% | 27.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.63 | 25.8% | 37.0% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Millwall
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Millwall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20