Southamptonvs
Bristol City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southampton 4-1 Bristol City
Original prediction
Southampton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 56.2% | 49.1% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 23.3% | 25.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.57 | 20.6% | 25.9% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Southampton
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40