Southamptonvs
Bolton
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southampton 0-0 Bolton
Original prediction
Southampton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 63.9% | 74.8% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.73 | 19.8% | 14.7% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 5.71 | 16.4% | 10.5% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Southampton
Probability
74.8%
Model confidence
74.8%
Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80