Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cosenza · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sorrento 1-0 Cosenza
Original prediction
Cosenza
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 43.7% | 35.3% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.0% | 28.6% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 28.3% | 36.1% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Cosenza
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Cosenza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SorrentoWWDDD
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CosenzaLLWDW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SorrentoCosenza
0.0Attack66.7
100.0Defence100.0
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power88.7
1.12xG1.34