Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Smiltene · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Smiltene 3-2 Tukums II
Original prediction
Smiltene
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 46.4% | 47.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 23.8% | 20.5% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 29.8% | 31.6% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Smiltene
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Smiltene has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SmilteneWWLLL
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Tukums IIWWLLL
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
SmilteneTukums II
46.0Attack42.9
9.5Defence4.8
25.4Form28.6
29.1Power27.7
2.64xG2.09