Smiltenevs
Riga Mariners
COMPLETEDLatvia · 1. Liga · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga Mariners · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-4 (13%), 0-3 (12%), 0-5 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Smiltene 4-1 Riga Mariners
Original prediction
Riga Mariners
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.17 | 7.4% | 3.6% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 6.89 | 13.2% | 7.5% | -5.7 pts |
| Away | 1.14 | 79.4% | 88.9% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–413%
- 2.0–312%
- 3.0–512%
Predicted outcome
Riga Mariners
Probability
88.9%
Model confidence
88.9%
Riga Mariners has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 18 · avg 1.40/3.60
GF 18 · GA 4 · avg 3.60/0.80