Smiltenevs
Riga FC II
COMPLETEDLatvia · 1. Liga · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga FC II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Smiltene 2-2 Riga FC II
Original prediction
Riga FC II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.46 | 25.8% | 25.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.1% | 18.5% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 52.0% | 56.0% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–37%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Riga FC II
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Riga FC II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80