Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Skanste · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Skanste 6-2 Tukums II
Original prediction
Skanste
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.3% | 68.9% | 14.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.0% | 15.1% | -6.9 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 23.7% | 16.0% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Skanste
Probability
68.9%
Model confidence
68.9%
Skanste has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SkansteDWWLL
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Tukums IILDLWL
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SkansteTukums II
60.8Attack43.8
35.3Defence6.3
39.2Form25.0
44.3Power26.9
3.63xG1.51