Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Skanste · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Skanste 1-3 Smiltene
Original prediction
Skanste
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.5% | 61.5% | 16.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.6% | 17.1% | -5.5 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 31.9% | 21.4% | -10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–17%
- 2.4–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Skanste
Probability
61.5%
Model confidence
61.5%
Skanste has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SkansteLLLWL
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SmilteneDWWWL
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SkansteSmiltene
66.7Attack49.3
30.4Defence11.6
37.7Form29.0
44.2Power32.0
3.95xG1.86