SK Poltavavs
Metal Kharkiv
COMPLETEDUkraine · Persha Liga · 9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SK Poltava · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SK Poltava 3-0 Metal Kharkiv
Original prediction
SK Poltava
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.4% | 40.5% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.1% | 27.3% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 24.5% | 32.2% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
SK Poltava
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
SK Poltava has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60