Siriusvs
IF Elfsborg
COMPLETEDSweden · Allsvenskan · 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sirius · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sirius 2-2 IF Elfsborg
Original prediction
Sirius
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 44.2% | 49.8% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.6% | 23.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.18 | 29.2% | 26.4% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Sirius
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Sirius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SiriusWDWWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
IF ElfsborgWLWWL
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SiriusIF Elfsborg
76.8Attack50.7
59.4Defence68.1
78.3Form58.0
72.5Power60.1
1.64xG1.09