Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sioni 0-0 Telavi, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sioni 2-1 Telavi
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.0% | 30.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 29.8% | 32.7% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.49 | 36.1% | 36.6% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Projected Score
Sioni 0–0 Telavi
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.7%
Model confidence
36.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SioniWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TelaviWDDLW
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
SioniTelavi
40.9Attack36.4
62.1Defence75.8
42.4Form60.6
49.8Power59.5
0.67xG0.78