Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shturmi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shturmi 0-0 Sioni, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shturmi 1-0 Sioni
Original prediction
Shturmi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.7% | 41.2% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.7% | 31.0% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 22.6% | 27.8% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Projected Score
Shturmi 0–0 Sioni
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Shturmi
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Shturmi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShturmiLWWDW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SioniWLLLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ShturmiSioni
36.8Attack41.4
70.1Defence57.5
52.9Form41.4
55.4Power48.4
1.03xG0.66