Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shturmi · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Shturmi are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Samtredia are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLDL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and shturmi hold a 13.7-point power-rating edge (54.4 v 40.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely result in the Erovnuli Liga 2, favouring Shturmi with 16.7% confidence, a 37% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Shturmi
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
16.7%
Shturmi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40