Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shturmi · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shturmi 0-0 Gareji, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shturmi 1-0 Gareji
Original prediction
Shturmi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.0% | 38.9% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.9% | 31.1% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 23.2% | 30.0% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.0 pts
Projected Score
Shturmi 0–0 Gareji
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Shturmi
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Shturmi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShturmiDWWLL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GarejiWLDWW
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.20/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
ShturmiGareji
35.9Attack44.9
70.5Defence65.4
51.3Form64.1
54.8Power60.4
0.78xG0.74