Shrewsburyvs
Northampton
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northampton · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shrewsbury 2-0 Northampton
Original prediction
Northampton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 35.7% | 31.5% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 30.0% | 30.7% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 34.3% | 37.8% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Northampton
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Northampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20