Shrewsburyvs
Exeter City
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shrewsbury 0-0 Exeter City, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shrewsbury 0-1 Exeter City
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 44.2% | 34.3% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.0% | 32.6% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.8% | 33.1% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Projected Score
Shrewsbury 0–0 Exeter City
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.6%
Model confidence
34.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShrewsburyLWDLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Exeter CityDWLDD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ShrewsburyExeter City
33.3Attack18.5
48.1Defence77.8
40.7Form33.3
43.4Power45.4
0.63xG0.79