Shrewsburyvs
Colchester
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shrewsbury 2-2 Colchester
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 38.5% | 33.8% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.8% | 30.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 32.7% | 35.8% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.21 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.4%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ShrewsburyDWLWL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ColchesterDDLWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ShrewsburyColchester
23.8Attack38.1
47.6Defence52.4
33.3Form42.9
37.7Power47.4
0.96xG1.17