Shrewsburyvs
Bristol Rovers
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bristol Rovers · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Shrewsbury 1-0 Bristol Rovers
Original prediction
Bristol Rovers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 30.1% | 29.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.9% | 25.8% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 41.0% | 44.9% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Bristol Rovers
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Bristol Rovers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60