Shinnik Yaroslavlvs
Spartak Kostroma
COMPLETEDRussia · First League · 10/26/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Shinnik Yaroslavl 0-0 Spartak Kostroma, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-1 Spartak Kostroma
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 34.6% | 33.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 31.4% | 31.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 34.0% | 35.0% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Projected Score
Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–0 Spartak Kostroma
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.7%
Model confidence
35.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00